analysis

Good Morning Treasury! - January 14, 2025

Markets, economy

Economy: Stock markets were mixed on Monday. Among the US equity indices, the Dow Jones was up +0.9%, the S&P 500 was up +0.2%, while the Nasdaq was down -0.3%. Asian markets also had a mixed performance, with the Nikkei flat, the Hang Seng down -1.0% and the CSI 300 down -0.3%. In Europe, the DAX was down -0.4%, the CAC -0.3% and the FTSE -0.3%. Geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth may be behind the fall in European markets. In Hungary, the BUX rose +1.1%, again outperforming its European peers, driven by a +1.6% rise in OTP, +1.7% in Mol and +0.5% in Richter, while Magyar Telekom fell -1.5%.

EURUSD

EURUSD: The dollar showed renewed strength and rallied to levels not seen in two years against the euro, hovering around 1.02, followed by a minor bounce back to hover around 1.0252. Some analysts are forecasting a further strengthening of the dollar, with the first days of the new US president likely to be market-moving.

EURHUF, USDHUF

EURHUF, USDHUF: The forint was trading around 413.50 414.0 yesterday, which is positive for the past few days, the forint closed Monday with further strength, which will continue on Tuesday morning, with the EURHUF mid-market at around 412.30 around 9am. Against the dollar, we see bigger movements, with the exchange rate hovering around 406, a two-year high, and the forint is now trading at 402 against the greenback.

Commodities

Commodities: oil prices have risen significantly, with Brent and WTI both up 3.0% to $81.18 and $79.57 per barrel respectively The rise in oil prices could be driven by rising global demand and tightness on the supply side. The gold price fell -0.9%, partly due to the strengthening dollar and an increase in investors' risk appetite.

Macro calendar

We were expecting inflation data from Hungary today, which came worse than expected.