analysis

Good Morning Treasury! - November 22, 2024

Markets, economy

After a few mixed days of trading, Thursday was mainly positive on the stock markets after a positive report from the Nvidia Corporation. In the US, the Dow Jones rose +1.06 percent, the S&P 500 +0.53 percent, and the Nasdaq +0.36 percent. Sentiment in Asia was mixed again, with the Nikkei down -0.85 percent and the Hang Seng down -0.53 percent. Only the CSI 300 managed a positive result with a rise of +0.09 percent. Today’s results are very mixed as well so far. European results were positive, with the DAX +0.74 percent, the CAC 40 +0.21 percent and the FTSE +0.79 percent higher on Thursday's trading day. The BUX was also up by +0.17 percent.

EURUSD

The euro depreciated further against the dollar. On Thursday, the currency pair appeared to hold between 1.0520 and 1.0540 but fell in late trading to end the day at around 1.0475, a more than 1-year low. This morning, it has not yet appreciated back above the important 1.0500 level on the back of weak economic data from France.

EURHUF, USDHUF

The forint has not made any significant progress, the geopolitical situation is not favorable. The EURHUF currency pair depreciated further from around 410.00 at the end of the day to close the day at around 411.22. Against the dollar, the forint depreciated even further, from around 388.40 in the morning to around 392.55 at the end of the day, a 2-year low.

Commodities

Both oil and gold prices rose on Thursday as traders worried about the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Brent Crude rose +1.95 percent to $74.23 a barrel, while WTI Crude rose +1.96 percent to $70.10 a barrel. Spot Gold rose +0.72 percent yesterday and is now 1 percent higher today, back around the 2700 level.

Macro calendar

Today we are expecting the Michigan Index from the USA.

Date

Data

Country

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

2024.11.15

14:30

Empire Manufacturing

USA

Nov.

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

2024.11.15

14:30

Industrial Production

USA

Oct.

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.3%

2024.11.19

11:00

CPI YoY

Eurozone

Oct.

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2024.11.19

14:00

Central Bank Rate Decision

Hungary

Nov 19.

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

2024.11.20

13:00

MBA Mortgage Applications

USA

Nov 15.

-

1.7%

0.5%

2024.11.21

14:30

Initial Jobless Claims

USA

Nov 16.

220k

213k

217k

2024.11.22

16:00

Michigan Index

USA

Nov.

73.9

-

73.0

Good morning Treasury!